Excess Mortality Paper Retracted
Quick Facts
Why Was the Excess Mortality Paper Retracted?
BMJ Public Health issued a retraction for the article examining excess mortality across Western countries during 2020–2022. Readers should consult the journal's retraction notice for its documented rationale rather than infer misconduct, political motivation, or a particular scientific conclusion from the retracted label alone.
Retraction is the strongest correction available to a scientific journal. Under guidance from the Committee on Publication Ethics, it is used when findings are considered unreliable or when serious problems affect the publication record; the precise reason can involve data, analysis, reporting, ethics, authorship, or publication processes.
Does the Retraction Mean Excess Mortality Did Not Occur?
Excess mortality compares observed deaths with the number expected from historical patterns. National statistical agencies, the World Health Organization, EuroMOMO, and other surveillance systems use this measure to assess the overall mortality burden during epidemics and other major disruptions.
Estimates can differ because analysts choose different baseline years, account for population aging in different ways, and use different methods for delayed registrations and seasonal trends. A retracted interpretation should therefore be removed from evidence reviews, while the underlying mortality question should continue to be examined using transparent methods and multiple independent datasets.
How Should Patients and Researchers Respond to a Retracted Study?
Researchers should identify the article as retracted, update reviews when it materially influenced their conclusions, and avoid citing it as valid evidence. Clinicians and journalists should check the journal record, Crossmark status, and subsequent corrections before repeating findings from a controversial or rapidly changing field.
Patients should not change vaccination, medication, or other healthcare decisions because of one retracted paper. Clinical decisions are better grounded in converging evidence from well-designed studies, public-health surveillance, regulatory assessments, and advice tailored by a qualified healthcare professional.
Frequently Asked Questions
Usually not. Journals commonly preserve the article with a prominent retraction notice so readers can see the publication history while being warned that its findings are unreliable.
No. Retraction means the article as published should not be relied upon, but each underlying question must still be evaluated using independent, higher-quality evidence.
Yes. Estimates may vary with the baseline period, statistical model, population adjustments, reporting delays, and data coverage, so methods must be compared before interpreting differences.
References
- BMJ Public Health. Retraction: Excess mortality across countries in the Western World since the COVID-19 pandemic: ‘Our World in Data’ estimates of January 2020 to December 2022.
- Mostert S, Hoogland M, Huibers M, Kaspers G. Excess mortality across countries in the Western World since the COVID-19 pandemic: ‘Our World in Data’ estimates of January 2020 to December 2022. BMJ Public Health. 2024. Retracted.
- Committee on Publication Ethics. Retraction Guidelines. Version 2. 2019.
- World Health Organization. Global excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.